Singapore Bullion Market Association

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WGC – MIDDLE EAST UPDATE

By ANDREW NAYLOR, Head of Middle East and Public Policy, World Gold Council

Gold recently touched a record high of $3,500/oz, as traders placed bids in response to a risk-off environment, no sign that the US tariff plan is going away anytime soon and concern the Fed’s intended tilt toward a maximum employment policy will be expedited and augmented by an interventionist White House. While the metal is off its highs, we expect average price to reach a new record of $3,550/oz in the final three months of 2025, as Fed eases, inflation trends higher, official sector keeps buying and discretionary funds position long.

New Record on the Cards

Gold’s new range seems to be $3,000-$4,000. In order for prices to go through that lower bound and to stay below the lower end of the range, it may take a shift in investor attention back to rising US risk asset prices, a view change that the US economy will not weaken, and no rate cuts. But we suspect that the economy will weaken, risk markets may have a difficult time rallying hard, and we expect the US central bank to cut.

Lower interest rates at a time inflation is increasing, relatively less appetite for Treasuries as US debt surges to new records and fears grow that the world will have less need for US dollars given a high tariff environment and the prospect of trillions worth of Eurobond competing for investor capital, all suggest that demand for the yellow metal should firm into 2025. As such, central banks, ETF investors and the under-positioned discretionary traders are expected to place strong bids on gold during that time. As such, we project the average price to hit a record $3,550/oz in the final three months of this year.

ANDREW NAYLOR joined the World Gold Council in 2016. He leads the Council’s regional office in the UAE and heads up public policy initiatives globally. He was previously head of APAC (ex-China) and based in Singapore. He was also part of the central banks and public policy team and led the Council’s Islamic finance initiative. Before joining the World Gold Council, Andrew worked for the international consultancy firm Cicero Group advising financial institutions on foreign investment and trade policy in Asia and the global regulatory reform agenda.