Singapore Bullion Market Association

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SBMA DELEGATION TO JAKARTA 2025: STRENGTHENING CONNECTIONS WITH INDONESIA’S GROWING BULLION MARKET

By ALBERT CHENG, CEO, SBMA

Gold recently touched a record high of $3,500/oz, as traders placed bids in response to a risk-off environment, no sign that the US tariff plan is going away anytime soon and concern the Fed’s intended tilt toward a maximum employment policy will be expedited and augmented by an interventionist White House. While the metal is off its highs, we expect average price to reach a new record of $3,550/oz in the final three months of 2025, as Fed eases, inflation trends higher, official sector keeps buying and discretionary funds position long.

New Record on the Cards

Gold’s new range seems to be $3,000-$4,000. In order for prices to go through that lower bound and to stay below the lower end of the range, it may take a shift in investor attention back to rising US risk asset prices, a view change that the US economy will not weaken, and no rate cuts. But we suspect that the economy will weaken, risk markets may have a difficult time rallying hard, and we expect the US central bank to cut.

Lower interest rates at a time inflation is increasing, relatively less appetite for Treasuries as US debt surges to new records and fears grow that the world will have less need for US dollars given a high tariff environment and the prospect of trillions worth of Eurobond competing for investor capital, all suggest that demand for the yellow metal should firm into 2025. As such, central banks, ETF investors and the under-positioned discretionary traders are expected to place strong bids on gold during that time. As such, we project the average price to hit a record $3,550/oz in the final three months of this year.

BART MELEK
Bart Melek has over 20 years’ experience analysing precious metals, base metals, energy, financial markets, as well as key economies. He has worked closely with commodity, equity and FX trading desks around the world, and has several forecasting distinctions and top global rankings. Bart contributes to the TD Securities strategic view on commodity, various other markets and macroeconomics. Bart is also a sought-after media commentator. Before joining TD, he held senior roles in equities, commodities and risk.