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Protecting Your Portfolio Against Covid-19

By Joshua Rotbart, Founder and Managing Partner, J. Rotbart & Co.

Published on March 20, 2020

We are only two-and-a-half months into the coronavirus (Covid-19) crisis, but its economic repercussions are already starting to be felt. As we look to the future, what steps should be taken to ensure financial stability? Gold and precious metals have long been a safe harbor during times of uncertainty like this.

ALTHOUGH COVID-19 HAS NOT BEEN DEEMED A GLOBAL PANDEMIC, THIS DOESN’T MEAN YOU SHOULDN’T START TAKING PRECAUTIONS.

To paraphrase an old saying, when China sneezes, the world catches a cold. And unfortunately, this is turning out to be literally true with the Covid-19 outbreak. Even with quarantines ranging from entire cities to at-risk individuals, we are seeing more and more cases reported worldwide. And while urgent efforts are being made to develop a vaccine and contain the disease’s spread, the impact of this crisis is being felt everywhere.

Even if you live somewhere far removed from Covid-19 patients, it is likely you are also feeling the effects of the virus – at least in your wallet. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, comprised of the World Bank and the World Health Organization, estimated that the 2003 SARS epidemic caused a loss in productivity of more than US$40 billion and that a moderate global pandemic could affect GDP by 2.2%, or around US$1.5 trillion. And although Covid-19 has not been deemed a global pandemic, this doesn’t mean you shouldn’t start taking precautions. JP Morgan has already adjusted its forecast for China’s first-quarter growth from an impressive 6.3% down to 1%.

WE DON’T THINK THERE IS AN END TO THE COVID-19 SITUATION THAT WON’T BE WITHOUT SOME FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DISCOMFORT.

CHINA’S ECONOMY IS THE WORLD’S ECONOMY

As the world’s second-largest economy, China affects every portfolio, including yours. The situation in China has slowed manufacturing across multiple industries around the world. From automotive to tech, deliveries have decreased or ceased, which will show in bottom lines everywhere. Apple and other companies have already warned about their earnings. This, in turn, may wreak havoc on stock exchanges as other related companies feel the pain.

As companies need to tighten their belts during and after a crisis like this, investors must look to safe havens to protect their portfolios. Gold and other precious metals, such as silver and palladium, are often looked to as a hedge against financial downturns elsewhere.

The local gold market in Hong Kong is quiet and local activity has decreased as consumers prefer to stay home and wait. Same for China – currently demand is not there for gold, or any related products. Having said that, our clients in Singapore and North America are quite active and either increase their exposure to gold or liquidate some of their holdings to materialize profits.

Changes in the price of gold, Dow Jones and Nasdaq from January 1, 2020 to March 6, 2020

Changes in the price of gold, Dow Jones and Nasdaq from January 1, 2020 to March 6, 2020 ​
Data as of March 6, 2020
Source: Bloomberg

PROTECTING YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST COVID-19 WITH GOLD

One can see the security of gold from the SARS crisis – gold prices gained 27% at the height of the epidemic, from March 2003 to March 2004. And gold has continued gaining value to this day. As Covid-19 picks up pace, investors have been flocking to this and other precious metals as they try to protect their portfolios, with gold prices reaching record highs in the last few weeks.

Since the first recorded incidents of Covid-19 on December 12, 2019, to March 6, 2020, gold prices have increased 10% from US$1,467 to US$1,681. Comparatively, major equity markets are slipping (see the graph above). This again proves gold’s importance as a hedge against falling financial markets.

If gold prices are so high, why should you buy it? We believe that gold is a safe, long-term investment, during good times and bad. And we don’t think there is an end to the Covid-19 situation that won’t be without some financial and economic discomfort. And we’re not alone. Other analysts believe gold prices may reach as high as US$2,000 or even higher. Nevertheless, with global efforts in place to address Covid-19, we look forward to this health crisis being resolved safely and soon with no lasting negative impacts.

JOSHUA ROTBART is the founder and managing partner of J. Rotbart & Co. Originally from Israel, Joshua joined Malca-Amit in 2010 and led the business development of the logistics group’s flagship vault at Singapore Freeport. In 2013, he moved to the company’s global head office in Hong Kong to develop Malca-Amit Precious Metals, its bullion procurement subsidiary. He left in 2016 to start J. Rotbart & Co.

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Singapore Bullion Market Association Secretariat-Lee-Jia-Yi

Lee Jia Yi

OPERATIONS & ADMIN EXECUTIVE
Before joining SBMA, Jia Yi worked as an Admin & Reporting Officer in her previous role. She holds a Diploma in Business & Social Enterprise from Ngee Ann Polytechnic. Jia Yi is responsible for managing and maintaining physical and digital files in SBMA, supporting invoicing processes, reconciling receivables and payables, coordinating meetings and conferences. Additionally, she will provide support to the team and assist the Business Director in managing the Association’s office operations and general administrative activities.

SECRETARIAT SBMA-Emily-Oh

Emily Oh

OPERATIONS & ADMIN EXECUTIVE
Emily Oh is the Operations & Admin Executive, a seasoned professional who values teamwork and effective communication. She is skilled at adapting to new challenges and takes a proactive and resourceful approach to every task. Before joining SBMA, Emily had experience coordinating international travel arrangements and spearheading community initiatives. Her role at SBMA will be providing operational and administrative support for projects and other matters to the team.

SECRETARIAT SBMA Clara-Chang

Clara Chang

MARKETING & COMMUNICATIONS EXECUTIVE
Clara Chang joins SBMA as the Marketing & Communications Executive, enriching the team with her extensive experience in content creation, social media management, and digital marketing. Prior to joining SBMA, Clara held the position of Marketing Executive at her previous job. She holds two bachelor’s degrees from the University at Buffalo, one in International Trade and another in Geographical Information Science. Her core duties will include maintaining the SBMA website, managing the quarterly Crucible newsletter, among other responsibilities.

SBMA Committee-Photo-john-levin

Mr John Levin

Global Metals
TD Securities
John Levin is the Head of Metal Sales & Trading – APAC at the Toronto Dominion Bank’s Singapore office. Prior to this role, he devoted seven years to leading precious metal sales for the ANZ banking group in his home country, Australia. Notably, from 2009 to 2011, John played a significant role on the management committee of the London Bullion Market Association while serving as the Head of Precious Metals Sales for HSBC Global Banking and Markets in the UK.

SBMA Secretariat-Fabian-Lew

Fabian Lew

MARKETING & COMMUNICATIONS OFFICER

Fabian was a Business Development and Marketing Associate before joining SBMA. He graduated from Singapore Management University with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics.

He has joined SBMA since February, 2022.

SBMA-margare-secretariat

Margaret Wong

BUSINESS DIRECTOR

Margaret Wong, Business Director at SBMA (Singapore Bullion Market Association), brought valuable experience from her previous role at the World Gold Council (WGC). Her tenure at WGC provided her with extensive exposure to the gold community in Singapore and the broader region. This background has been instrumental in establishing strong working relationships within the industry.

Margaret’s role at SBMA encompasses a diverse range of responsibilities. She oversees office management, business support processes, finance, and administrative functions essential for the smooth operation of the team and management committee. Additionally, Margaret handles membership matters, member communications, and addresses public inquiries related to SBMA.

One of Margaret’s key responsibilities is coordinating with the Event Management Company for SBMA’s prestigious annual event, the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference. This flagship conference plays a crucial role in the industry, making her involvement pivotal in its success.

Described as resourceful and self-motivated, Margaret Wong brings a wealth of skills and experience to her role at SBMA, ensuring efficient operations and effective engagement within the precious metals community in Singapore and beyond.

SBMA-Albert-secretariat

Albert Cheng

Chief Executive Officer

Albert Cheng joined the World Gold Council in March 1993 as a Regional Manager, becoming Managing Director, Far East in 2003. He retired at the end of March 2015 and was subsequently named its Advisor. He has also been an International Advisor to the Shanghai Gold Exchange since 2002.

His marketing career began with Dentsu Young & Rubicam, Hong Kong in the early 80’s. He began gold marketing in July 1985 when he joined the Royal Canadian Mint as a Regional Manager for Southeast Asia.

He was appointed honorary CEO of SBMA in November 2015. He is responsible for the success and strategic development of SBMA, represents the interests of the Association, and is responsible for all the legal and regulatory aspects of the work of the Association. He is the primary contact for regulators and government bodies on bullion market development.

Ms Pawan Nawawattanasub

Ms Pawan Nawawattanasub

CEO
YLG Bullion Singapore Pte Ltd

Pawan is the CEO of YLG Bullion Singapore and founder of YLG Bullion International. She has almost 40 years of experience in the jewellery industry and established YLG in Thailand in 2003. In 2012, she brought YLG to Singapore. She sits on the Board of Directors of the Thailand Gold Traders Association, the Thailand Futures Exchange’s Arbitration Committee, and the Rotary Bangkok committee. She holds a master’s degree in Political Science.

SBMA-Shaokai-Fan

Mr Shaokai Fan

Head of Asia-Pacific (ex China) and Global Head of Central Banks
World Gold Council
Shaokai Fan is the Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council, responsible for advising governments on gold matters, and enhancing the gold market through engagement, dialogue, and thought leadership. He works directly with central banks and sovereign wealth funds on investment considerations. Prior to this position, Shaokai held multiple roles at Standard Chartered Bank, including Director for Asia Strategic Initiatives and Associate-Director for Public Sector coverage. Shaokai holds a Masters of Public Administration from Columbia University and the London School of Economics, and an undergraduate degree in finance and economics from New York University.

SBMA-Committee-Alan-Liew

Mr Alan Liew

Head of Bullion & Commodities Trading
United Overseas Bank Limited
Alan is Head of Bullion and Commodities Trading for Group Trading in Global Markets, United Overseas Bank (UOB). Alan joined UOB and started the bank’s commodities trading business in 2014, previously he spent eight years in Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) trading both precious and base metals. During his tenure at SCB, he obtained the SGE gold trader licence and was part of the pioneering team for the SGE business and the FX quantitative trading team. Prior to trading, he worked for Monetary Authority of Singapore in the Financial Risk Management Division. He holds a BSc (Hon) in Computer Science at National University of Singapore and a MSc in Financial Engineering at Nanyang Technological University.

SBMA-Committee-Nikos

Mr Nikos Kavalis

Managing Director
Metals Focus Singapore Pte Ltd
Nikos Kavalis is a founding partner of Metals Focus. He has over 20 years of experience in precious metals, having previously worked for the Royal Bank of Scotland and GFMS. Since September 2019, Nikos has been based in Singapore, where he also runs the local subsidiary of Metals Focus.

SBMA-Committee-khun nuttapong

Mr Nuttapong Hirunyasiri

CEO
MTS Gold Global Trading Pte Ltd
Nuttapong Hirunyasiri is the CEO of MTS Gold Group, one of Thailand’s top 10 companies and top 3 bullion companies. He started MTS Gold Group’s first overseas office in Singapore and has been expanding the group business internationally. He focuses on product development and innovation for gold investment, with the aim of being a leader in providing the full suite of gold investment services in the ASEAN region.

SBMA Committee-Photo-Raman-Walia

Mr Raman Walia

Executive Director, Head of Commodities Sales – APAC
JP Morgan Chase Bank N.A.

Raman is Executive Director and Head of Commodities Sales, APAC, for J.P. Morgan. He joined JPMorgan in 2008 in New York, moved to Singapore in 2011, and helped expand the precious metals business in the region. Raman has an MBA from Cornell University, and likes to travel in his spare time.

SBMA Committee-Photo-Andrew-Clarke

Mr Andrew Clarke

Head of Brink’s Global Services
Brink’s Global Services Pte Ltd

Andrew Clarke is the Head of BGS (Brink’s Global Services) for Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei. He has held various leadership positions throughout his career in secure logistics and risk management with Brink’s, which started in Hong Kong in 2010. Andrew relocated to Singapore in 2018 to expand the precious metals line of business along with Brink’s portfolio of services and industries.

SBMA Committee-Photo-Kazuya-Naoki

Mr Kazuya Naoki

Head of Metals, Asia
ICBC Standard Bank Plc, Singapore Branch

Kazuya (Kaz) Naoki is the Head of Metals, Asia of ICBC Standard Bank in Singapore and is responsible for the precious & base metals sales and trading in the region. He joined Standard Bank Plc Tokyo Branch in 2008 and was relocated to its Singapore Branch in 2013 whose controlling stake was acquired by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in 2015. Prior to joining Standard Bank, Kaz spent 11 years focusing on commodity trading and risk management with Mitsui & Co in Tokyo, Sydney and London. Kaz has been serving on the SBMA Management Committee since 2016.

SBMA Committee-Photo-Vinh-Nguyen

Mr Vinh Nguyen

Head of Precious Metals, Asia
StoneX APAC Pte Ltd

Vinh Nguyen joined StoneX Group in Singapore at the beginning of 2008 and responsible for its APAC precious metals activities since 2019 until now.

SBMA Committee-KL-Yap

Mr KL Yap

General Manager, Singapore Refining Business Unit
Metalor Technologies (Singapore) Pte Ltd
KL YAP is the General Manager of Metalor Technologies (Singapore) Pte Ltd’s Singapore Refining Business Unit. He joined Metalor in 2013, initially in Refining Sales. In 2014, he became Refining Business Unit Manager, leading the development of a new precious metal refinery. KL was Vice Chairman of SBMA from 2017 to 2021, now serving as Chairman. With a degree in business commerce, finance, and marketing, he brings prior experience from refinery and heavy industries.